14 July, 2012
Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS) change calculations are extensively used in geophysics, e.g. to explain earthquake interaction and triggering. These calculations rely on the input earthquake fault-slip model that describes the fault geometry and slip of the causative earthquake. These models have uncertainties and therefore the calculated CFS changes carry uncertainties as well. However, fault model uncertainties have until now been largely ingnored in CFS calculations. In this paper, Jochen Woessner, Sigurjón Jónsson, Henriette Sudhaus, and Cyrill Baumann study how fault model errors can be propagated in Coulomb Failure Stress change calculations to obtain CFS maps with uncertainties. The results show that calculated CFS changes are significant for only a part of the area around the causative fault, which indicates that most published CFS studies are likely biased.